[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221953
SWODY1
SPC AC 221951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE ATLANTIC COAST AND NRN FL...
AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GRTLKS
REGION...OVERALL DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME WAS BECOMING WLY ACROSS THE
COLD FRONT.  POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
KINEMATIC REGIME HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING TREND OF THE TSTMS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT THIS AFTN.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
EVE.  FARTHER S...PWAT VALUES ARE LOWER THAN SATURDAY WHERE MINIMAL
CONVECTION OCCURRED ALONG THE SEABREEZES.  OTHER THAN ISOLD
SHOWERS...THE LIGHTNING THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL APPEARS MINIMAL
/LESS THAN 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY/.

...LWR GRTLKS...
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH AN UPR SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS
REGION.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. AN
ISOLD STRIKE OR TWO COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY LAKE-ENHANCED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT.

..RACY.. 10/22/2006