[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210536
SWODY1
SPC AC 210534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET.  

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM FL INTO THE NRN GULF
SHOULD RETREAT NWD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SECOND FRONT -- WHICH IS FORECAST TO
SURGE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY -- SHOULD
OVERTAKE THE GULF COAST FRONT THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.


...GULF COAST REGION...
WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS WEAKENING FRONT
RETREATS NWD AHEAD OF SECOND BOUNDARY SURGING SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...WEAK LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS S OF RETREATING BOUNDARY SHOULD
HINDER SIGNIFICANT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION.  IN ADDITION...THIS
REGION WILL REMAIN S OF THE ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID/UPPER JET. 
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH THE GENERAL LACK OF FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. 
NONETHELESS...WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW YIELDING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 10/21/2006