[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170043
SWODY1
SPC AC 170041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES...

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...

SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NERN AR IN RESPONSE TO
EJECTING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  JUST DOWNSTREAM...TRUE WARM SECTOR
RECOVERY HAS STRUGGLED TO RETURN NWD HOWEVER AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAINTAIN STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF AL INTO NRN MS.  ALTHOUGH
INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH IS SOMEWHAT LACKING DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY. 
HOWEVER...JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS
FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS WHICH AT TIMES APPEAR TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AS EVIDENT BY PERIODIC TORNADIC SIGNATURES
WITH NWD-MOVING SUPERCELLS WELL AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 
THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE MOST
PRONOUNCED TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF FORCED LINE OF STORMS THAT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS
LA INTO WRN MS.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WHICH FAVOR RAPID...AND POSSIBLY STRONG...TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FORCED LINE OF STORMS AS
THEY PROGRESS EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...ELSEWHERE...

00Z SOUNDING FROM GJT SUPPORTS ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT. 
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH SHOULD ALSO REFLECT THIS
INSTABILITY LOSS WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING TRENDS AFTER SUNSET.

..DARROW.. 10/17/2006