[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141636
SWODY1
SPC AC 141634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TX COAST...

...AZ TODAY...
A COLD CORE LOW OVER SE CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO WRN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT.  A BELT OF 45-60 KT SLY/SSWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW E OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD EWD OVER AZ
TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASCENT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN
THIS BAND MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHERE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.  THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  PLEASE
REFER TO MCD 2110 /VALID THROUGH 18Z/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...W TX/SRN NM LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A BROAD FETCH OF L0W-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL/SRN GULF OF CA AND NW MEXICO INTO SRN NM AND FAR W TX...IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. 
FARTHER E...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE SPREADING
NWWD UP THE PECOS VALLEY INTO SW TX/SE NM.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOWED RATHER MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AOB 6
C/KM...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND LIMIT SURFACE HEATING
/ESPECIALLY THE PECOS VALLEY/. STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND SOME CLOUD BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS ACROSS FAR W TX
AND SW NM...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM BY THIS EVENING
ACROSS SW TX/SE NM.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
OVER THIS ENTIRE AREA...AND THE MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.

...S TX LATE TONIGHT...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS OVER THE W CENTRAL AND SW
GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING
NNEWD NEAR TAMPICO.  THIS WAVE/CONVECTION WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST AND ADJACENT NW
GULF...SUPPORTING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS/STRENGTHENING GRADIENTS AND AN
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN A
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE 12Z.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/14/2006