[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141237
SWODY1
SPC AC 141236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF SERN CA/SRN NV INTO
NWRN AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND MIDDLE TX
COAST LATER TONIGHT...

...SOUTHWEST...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE LOW CENTER...ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CA...IS DEEPENING OVER THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN EED AND IGM.  ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING DEEP ASCENT NEAR THIS FEATURE WHERE
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT OVER
FAR ERN SAN BERNADINE CO/CA INTO CLARK CO/NV AND SRN MOHAVE CO/AZ. 
NARROW AXIS OF 55-60 F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MODEST WARM SECTOR
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F IS SUSTAINING 500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
LITTLE OR NO CINH FROM THE PHX AREA NWWD INTO SERN CA/SRN NV AS OF
12Z.  AS 50+ KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION...LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ENHANCED TODAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN MEAGER... STRENGTH OF DEEP ASCENT AND SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AS THEY LIFT NNEWD TODAY.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LOSE INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS NWD INTO GREATER STABILITY INTO NERN
AZ/CENTRAL NM.

...SRN/CENTRAL TX COASTAL PLAIN...
SUBTLE TROPICAL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY A SURFACE WAVE ALONG
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM DEEP SOUTH TX INTO THE
NWRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT NEAR THIS SURFACE
FRONT...AND AHEAD OF WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE...ESPECIALLY AS SSELY H85
WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER 03Z.  GIVEN INFLUX OF MID/UPPER 70F SURFACE
DEW POINTS AND FORECAST 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2...LOW
LEVEL ROTATION WILL STRENGTHEN WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS ALONG THE
LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST. APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE AFTER DARK.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 10/14/2006