[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140540
SWODY1
SPC AC 140538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN U.S...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT CONFLICTING REGARDING THE
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST INTO AZ LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE NAM AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE SWRN DESERT REGIONS.  DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY ACROSS
SERN AZ/SRN NM...ARCING NWWD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL AZ. 
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STRENGTH OF
UPDRAFTS WILL PROVE ROBUST WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT
THERMODYNAMICALLY LACKING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND STRONGLY DIURNAL.

...TX COAST...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A DEEP TROPICAL CONNECTION
FROM LOW LATITUDES EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MEXICO...NEWD INTO THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO.  MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WITHIN
THIS ZONE SOUTH OF THE TX BORDER...EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF SFC WIND
SHIFT. MODELS INSIST A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NEWD WITHIN THIS
TROPICAL FEED AND INDUCE WEAK SFC DEVELOPMENT...EITHER IN THE FORM
OF A WEAK SFC WAVE...OR PERHAPS A WEAK CLOSED SFC LOW ALONG THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE
LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.  UNDOUBTEDLY...THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OF CONCERN AS IT FOCUSES DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.  AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFTS WILL OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WITH TIME THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INLAND...BUT IT MAY NOT
DO SO UNTIL LATE DAY1 OR PERHAPS DAY2. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WITH NEAR-SFC BASED SUPERCELL
ACTIVITY ALONG THE TX COAST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..DARROW/GUYER.. 10/14/2006