[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101615
SWODY1
SPC AC 101614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

...SRN TX...
UPPER LOW OVER SWRN U.S. MONDAY IS NOW AN OPEN WAVE AND ACCELERATING
ENEWD ACROSS  SRN HI PLAINS THIS AM.  AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POLAR
TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL U.S. WILL RESULT IN SRN PLAINS SYSTEM TO
STEADILY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT IS ABSORBED IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OF
THE MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE N.

ONGOING LINEAR MCS NOW TRACKING ACROSS SCENTRAL TX IS BEING FED BY A
VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE SLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS AM SHEAR PROFILES NOTED ON 88-D VADS AND LDB PROFILER
SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALONG WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS THAT
RESULTS IN MLCAPE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR...WIND DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD SERN TX AND 
UPPER TX COASTAL AREA THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL
EXIST ALONG TRAILING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO SRN TX DURING
AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING COULD WEAKEN CAP AND INCREASE INSTABILITY TO
AOA 2000 J/KG. WEAKENING SHEAR THIS AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ON THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY

AS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONCERT WITH DE AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 10/10/2006