[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101251
SWODY1
SPC AC 101249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S CNTRL AND SE TX
INTO WRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING SSE FROM CNTRL CANADA
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEAMPLIFICATION OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE OVER
NM.  THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS KS/OK TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO NRN TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG LOW AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL JET
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SW U.S. TO THE LWR MS VLY.

AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY ONGOING OVERNIGHT
MCSS AND BY EXISTING FRONT THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE TX BIG BEND ENE INTO SE OK.  WEAK WAVE/INFLECTION AREA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER S CNTRL TX TODAY AS A NEW WAVE
EVENTUALLY FORMS DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPR VORT OVER THE
OZARKS/MID MS VLY.  TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE WAVE SHOULD
ACCELERATE SE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...S CNTRL TX INTO SE TX/WRN LA...
SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAST 12-18
HRS ACROSS S CNTRL AND PARTS OF SE TX...WHERE SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS PREVAILED AND PWS ARE AOA 1.50 INCHES.  SEVERAL SMALL MCSS THAT
TRACKED ENE ACROSS SW AND S CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT HAVE REINFORCED SW
PART OF SYNOPTIC FRONT NOW STALLED ROUGHLY ENE FROM THE TX BIG BEND.
FARTHER E...SURFACE DATA AND AXIS OF PERSISTENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING N/S FROM W OF
CLL TO NEAR VCT.

HIGH CLOUDS WITH SUBTROPICAL JET AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR TODAY.  BUT GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND
MINUS 9 AT 500 MB/...EVEN MODEST HEATING SHOULD BOOST AFTN MLCAPE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG.

VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS/BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND 
...BOTH ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...AND LATER TODAY WITHIN
WARM SECTOR.  THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E INTO PARTS OF
LA TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO NEAR AND E OF THE SABINE RVR.

FARTHER NE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK AND SW AR...EXPECT THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MINIMAL.  COUPLED WITH CLOUD COVER...IT
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  THUS...DESPITE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...AS WELL AS
SOMEWHAT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT THAN OVER POINTS SOUTH...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

..CORFIDI.. 10/10/2006