[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080030
SWODY1
SPC AC 080029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHWEST...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF STRONG SRN CA TROUGH CONTINUE TO AID DEEP CONVECTION
FROM WRN MEXICO TO NM/CO AND THE EXTREME WRN TX PNHDL THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EXISTS TO THE EAST OF A BAND OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE
OUTER BANKS. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ERN NC BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT DID ALLOW FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND A FEW STORMS PERSIST IN
THIS REGION WITHIN MODEST WARM CONVEYOR BELT. WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND BEGINNING TO FILL...AND DIURNAL
STABILIZATION SETTING IN...THE CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM APPEARS TO
BE DECREASING.

OVER FL...WIND SHIFT/FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALOUS SYSTEM OVER
THE CAROLINAS HAS INTERSECTED EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
RESULTED IN ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM MOIST AIR MASS.
SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER HAIL OR WIND REPORT REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT HALF-HOUR OR SO BUT OVERALL TREND
SHOULD BE ONE OF WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK
OF MORE PRONOUNCED FORCING.

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NCNTRL NEB. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE FORCING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD FROM
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WELL MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
COULD SUPPORT GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER
THE NEXT HOUR BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND DECOUPLING SHOULD TEMPER MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 10/08/2006