[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071951
SWODY1
SPC AC 071949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TIDEWATER VA S INTO FAR ERN NC/OUTER BANKS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSWWD INTO SC THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...REACHING SRN SC/GA COAST REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY.  STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE WRN/SRN PERIPHERIES
OF THIS SYSTEM.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...SMALL WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXTENDED INLAND FROM FAR SERN VA S
TO EAST CENTRAL NC.  AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TO THE SSW...ATTENDANT
MOIST/WARM SECTOR SHOULD ALSO REDEVELOP TO THE SSW ALONG AND JUST
INLAND OF THE NC COAST.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER
INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE...WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW WERE TENDING TO
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN INLAND WARM
SECTOR.  NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING INTO NERN NC/SERN VA.  POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS GREATER SURFACE VORTICITY AND LOW LCLS
EXIST ALONG THIS NARROW CONVERGENCE BAND.  THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP
SWD ALONG NC COAST TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BAND MOVES S.

...SERN AZ/WRN-SRN NM...
NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S LOCATED OVER
SERN AZ/SWRN NM COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS
THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE
500-1000 J/KG/ INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REGIME IS SOMEWHAT FLAT ACROSS THIS REGION...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE MAY BE TRAVERSING
NRN MEXICO INTO SWRN NM AT THIS TIME...AIDING IN ONGOING CONVECTION.
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL PLNS...
SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ALONG ENHANCED LEE
TROUGH TRAILING SW FROM ND LOW MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN PARTS OF NEB/NE CO AND SE SD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

..PETERS.. 10/07/2006