[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070052
SWODY1
SPC AC 070051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI OCT 06 2006

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NV/SRN UT...

...SRN GREAT BASIN...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA DEPICTED AN INTENSE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH AN 80KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY
EJECTING NEWD FROM THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS CA AND THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG LIFT ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE WAS ACTING ON
A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SERN NV ACROSS SRN UT THIS
EVENING. RESULTING FAST-MOVING BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD AND EWD FROM ERN NV
TO SRN UT THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL TEMPER A
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION...MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR POSSIBLE HAIL/WIND
EVENTS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.

...SOUTHEAST...
TIGHTLY WOUND MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL SURGE ARCING FROM
THE NC/VA CAPES TO THE GA COAST. VERY STRONG FORCING AND LOW STATIC
STABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MAUL LAYER ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF NERN NC AND SERN VA WHERE ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD
STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL TONIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH...FRONTAL LIFT CONTINUES TO SPAWN A FEW INTENSE STORMS
OFF THE SC COAST...WWD/INLAND TO WEST OF SAV. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

..CARBIN.. 10/07/2006