[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051631
SWODY1
SPC AC 051630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU OCT 05 2006

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ID AND
NORTHWEST UT...

...UT/ID...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES EMBEDDED IN FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM CA ACROSS NV/UT INTO ID.  WIDESPREAD AND AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM SOUTHERN NV ACROSS UT WILL
LIKELY RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LESSENED DAYTIME HEATING. 
HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP ALONG WEST EDGE OF
CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST UT INTO SOUTHEAST ID.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS AREA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG...PROMOTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. 
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND TIMING OF
UPPER FEATURES DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY...COVERAGE OF
STORMS MAY BE GREATER DUE TO AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. VERTICAL
SHEAR VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM KY/TN INTO
VA/NC. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION. 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPE VALUES OF 800-1200 J/KG.  HOWEVER...WEAKER WIND FIELDS AND
LAPSE RATES THAN PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
RATHER MARGINAL.  NEVERTHELESS...STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/JEWELL.. 10/05/2006