[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011951
SWODY1
SPC AC 011950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BAND OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THIS FEATURE
OVER WRN INTO CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER CT WITH
ATTENDANT WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH CAPE COD...WHILE
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED NW-SE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
THIS LOW PRESSURE TO OFF LONG ISLAND.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE LIMITING AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ALONG AND N OF
WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG/ NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

FARTHER E ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...A LOW SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG WARM FRONT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.

...UPPER MIDWEST...

POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT WITH ZONE OF STRONG
THERMAL/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG NOSE OF 35-45 KT LLJ. 
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST THAT CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE NECESSARY TO
FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC...EFFECTIVELY DECREASING POTENTIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  STILL...SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS.

..MEAD.. 10/01/2006