[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291606
SWODY1
SPC AC 291604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

POWERFUL S/WV TROUGH WILL CROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON REACHING SRN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  STRONG ARCTIC FRONT AT 15Z FROM NERN MO TO
CENTRAL OK/SRN TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES PRESSING SEWD.  STRONG SLY
FLOW OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NWD THRU SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND TO COLD SIDE OF SHALLOW
ARCTIC FRONT THIS AM FROM WRN IL TO NRN OK.  WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INITIAL THREAT WILL BE
HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM OK TO WRN IL.  ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT SOME
DISTANCE TO THE COLD SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT.

FURTHER S WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN TX BY MID
AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AOA 2000 J/KG.  GIVEN 50-60 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ENHANCING BOTH THE LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD E/NEWD ACROSS NRN
TX/SERN OK INTO WRN AR THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE W.

..HALES/GUYER.. 11/29/2006