[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290054
SWODY1
SPC AC 290052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN OK/NWRN AR/SERN KS INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL MO...
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NRN MN AND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING NEWD INTO ONTARIO WILL TEND TO TRACK MORE NWD
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED OVER ND/SRN
MANITOBA AS ERN MT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SRN CANADA.  COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN
PLAINS...AS LARGE SCALE WRN TROUGH EDGES EWD.  TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO A NARROW MOIST
AXIS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.  WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ANY SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  

FARTHER S...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 06Z...
FROM ERN KS/NERN OK AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND SWLY LLJ
EXTENDING FROM TX/ERN OK TO OZARK PLATEAU STRENGTHENS. DEEP LAYER
ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO WAA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 70 KT MID LEVEL
JET APPROACHING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM AIR
ADVECTION BENEATH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING SRN
HIGH PLAINS JETLET SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG.  THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ROTATING STORMS.  STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO NWRN
AR TO CENTRAL MO.

..PETERS.. 11/29/2006