[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281953
SWODY1
SPC AC 281951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SCATTERED TSTMS PERSIST WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ON THE APEX
OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM SERN MN ACROSS WI AND NRN IL THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA. DEEP-LAYER SLY/SWLY FLOW BETWEEN STRONG
WRN U.S. TROUGH AND SERN U.S RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF 
HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOPPED BY GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES WITHIN MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK/MARGINAL WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TX/OK AREAS
WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL EDGE
STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND MUCH OF KS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIDED BY NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT FROM OK NEWD ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO AND
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ASCENT NEAR AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVEYOR BELT
AND ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT DEVELOPS INTO 
THE MOIST AXIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE FORCING...SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO TEMPER SEVERE
WEATHER /HAIL/ POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

..CARBIN.. 11/28/2006