[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280100
SWODY1
SPC AC 280058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON NOV 27 2006

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY TO WI...
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES /ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN
IA/ERN KS AND THE SECOND OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/ PIVOTING AROUND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO AID LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ASCENT WILL ACT IN
CONCERT WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A SHARP FRONTAL ZONE
FROM TX/OK TO IA/WI TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION.  

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG/E OF SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS KS/IA PORTION OF FRONT RETREATS NWD IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NRN PLAINS
TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT/STEEPER LAPSE
RATES SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF
STRONGER SRN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUGGEST GREATER
DESTABILIZATION/TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FROM OK TO ERN NEB.
MOST OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR IN
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.  ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MAY SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS NRN OK/KS PORTION OF FRONT WHICH IS
CLOSER TO STRONGER MOISTURE FEED. 

...NERN NV/NRN UT TO SWRN WY...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -30 C AT 500 MB/ AND ASCENT WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN NV/SRN ID...WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
NRN UT INTO SWRN WY THIS EVENING.

..PETERS.. 11/28/2006