[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231544
SWODY1
SPC AC 231542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CST THU NOV 23 2006

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES TODAY...
A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...TO THE NRN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT.  AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD ACCOMPANY
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN ID/SW MT/NW WY
WHERE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE COINCIDE WITH ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL TSTM
THREAT.  OTHERWISE...A SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER WA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-34 C AT 500 MB/ AND 7-8
C/KM THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWEST 6 KM SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR AND
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS. 

...SE NEW ENGLAND TODAY...
A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NEWD AND
LIKELY REMAIN JUST SE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE BROADER RAIN SHIELD TODAY ACROSS SE
NEW ENGLAND...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/23/2006