[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST WED NOV 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT IS BEGINNING...AS EVIDENT IN NEWD
EJECTION OF DEEP/OCCLUDED CYCLONE INVOF COAST...AND IN HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS PACIFIC NW REGION.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY BETWEEN 128W-132W OFFSHORE PACIFIC NW -- IS
FCST TO MOVE INLAND DURING 23/00Z-23/03Z TIME FRAME. 
MEANWHILE...FARTHER SE...SW-NE ELONGATED SFC CYCLONE LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE SRN NC COAST IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD IN TANDEM WITH LOW
ALOFT. AIR MASS BETWEEN TIDEWATER REGION AND PACIFIC NW WILL REMAIN
TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

...NWRN CONUS...
SYNOPTIC SCALE DESTABILIZATION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS FROM W-E ACROSS WA/ORE...AS STRONGEST DPVA
MOVES OVERHEAD PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS
SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE AREA OF DISCRETE/CUMULIFORM
CONVECTION OVER WATER...INCLUDING SCATTERED/SMALL CB.  MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS WEAK MUCAPE OF 300 J/KG OR LESS IN
MOST AREAS...BUT ALSO WEAK CINH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH SOME
BUOYANCY EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR CG LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION.

...TIDEWATER NC TO COASTAL NJ...
MRGL/ELEVATED BUOYANCY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM
CONVEYOR...WILL SHIFT NWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NEAR COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE MAY
PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT IN SUPPORT OF POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SPORADIC
THUNDER FROM DELMARVA THROUGH COASTAL NJ.  FARTHER S...ISOLATED
TSTMS IN COLD CORE REGION OF SYSTEM -- LOCATED MAINLY OFFSHORE --
MAY AFFECT IMMEDIATE COASTAL ARAS NC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. 
HOWEVER...SWATH OF MIDLEVEL DRYING THAT HAS WRAPPED AROUND MUCH OF
CYCLONE CORE MAY CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

..EDWARDS.. 11/22/2006