[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111951
SWODY1
SPC AC 111949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2006

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
PRIMARY ZONE OF UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE LOWER OH/TN
VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY POST-FRONTAL...WHILE WEAK LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT /MOST LIKELY 09-12Z/...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED
TO OCCUR OVER NERN NC TO THE VA TIDEWATER AREA IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE CLOSED
LOW EVOLVES OVER VA/NC BY 12Z SUNDAY.  EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW-NNE ACROSS FAR ERN
NC TO FAR SERN VA WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR TWO OF CONVECTION/TSTMS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...TIME OF
DAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED GEOGRAPHICAL AREA
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ADDITION OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA...
REGIONAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED SINCE 1830Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVED EWD INTO THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL.  A NARROW MOIST AXIS EXTENDED NEWD
INTO WRN GA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING WEAK INSTABILITY. 
VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT CONVERGENCE...WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING UNDERCUT BY THE
FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD MINIMIZE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...DESPITE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KT.  A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS
OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 11/11/2006