[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111630
SWODY1
SPC AC 111628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST SAT NOV 11 2006

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE MID MS VLY EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SUBSTANTIALLY
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS SYSTEM CONTINUES E/SE INTO NC/SRN VA. 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SHOULD REACH WRN PARTS OF THE SW VA...NC AND SC
PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING...AND THE HATTERAS AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS
EXISTING SFC LOW FILLS OVER NW PA AND NEW CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER
TIDEWATER VA.

WITH MAIN UPR JET STREAK/VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL W OF SFC WARM SECTOR...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK.  THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY DESPITE UNINHIBITED SURFACE
HEATING AND SHALLOW FRONTAL UPLIFT.

LATER IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY WILL
OVERTAKE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR OVER FAR ERN NC AND PERHAPS
TIDEWATER VA AS SECONDARY SFC CYCLONE STRENGTHENS.  SATELLITE AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST ATTM SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS INVOLVED WILL BE OF MODIFIED POLAR CHARACTER...WITH A
FAIRLY SHALLOW MODERATELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S/.  A BAND OR TWO OF CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD ALONG WRN EDGE OF MORE STRONGLY MODIFIED AIRMASS OVER EXTREME
ERN NC AND THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS NWD TO THE VA CAPES.  WHILE
ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY...
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
GEOGRAPHICAL AREA INVOLVED PRECLUDE ADDITION OF A SEVERE THREAT AREA
ATTM.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 11/11/2006