[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081921
SWODY1
SPC AC 081918

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CST WED NOV 08 2006

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  IN ITS WAKE...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...FROM THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A GENERALLY STABLY STRATIFIED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. A COUPLE AREAS WITH LIMITED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DO EXIST...BUT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN IN THESE AREAS IS LOW.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES INLAND.  ONSHORE FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE OREGON COAST...WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
EXISTS.

OTHERWISE...DESTABILIZATION HAS BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING ALONG FRONT NOW
ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...WITH SOUTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA/NORTHERN UTAH BY EARLY THIS
EVENING EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
WEAK...MID-LEVEL BASED CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  AN ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ...BEFORE
FORCING SHIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

...ATLANTIC COAST...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA.  UPPER FLOW REMAINS DIVERGENT ACROSS MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING OFF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. 
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME LIFTING UP MIDDLE/NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS...IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE CYCLONE.

..KERR.. 11/08/2006