[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081250
SWODY1
SPC AC 081248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST WED NOV 08 2006

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES.  ALTHOUGH THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW
TODAY...SEVERAL AREAS MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS QUITE
STRONG AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

...CAROLINAS...
CORE OF UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SC/NC TODAY.  POCKET OF COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20C AT 500MB/ WILL YIELD RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...BEFORE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.  SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW.

...SOUTH FL...
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY...PROVIDING A THREAT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST TODAY AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL AID IN THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


...UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
FAST MOVING UPPER JET MAX OVER MT/ND WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UPPER
FORCING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LATER TODAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
CAPE ABOVE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO MI DURING THE EVENING.  NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST.

..HART/BOTHWELL.. 11/08/2006