[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071639
SWODY1
SPC AC 071637

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CST TUE NOV 07 2006

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EWD OVER THE NC/SC/GA TRIPLE POINT DURING
THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD.  STRONG NRN BRANCH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE SWRN U.S. MORNING SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED LOW OVER NWRN TN WITH AN OCCLUSION EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE.  A WARM FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO EWD ACROSS NRN FL WITH STRONG
LARGE SFC RIDGING ANCHORED JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING NELY FLOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

...ERN CAROLINAS...

MORNING NAM IS WEAK ON THE DETAILS OF DEVELOPING SFC LOW ANYWHERE
FROM NRN FL INTO CENTRAL SC/NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 
LATEST RUC FORECAST BRINGS THE LOW THRU THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO S
CENTRAL GA BY 08/00Z WHICH IS CLOSER TO WHAT MAY REALLY HAPPEN. 
USUALLY IN THESE CASES CONSIDERING THE STRONG PRESSURES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE ERN APPALACHIANS AND THE GULF STREAM OFF
COAST CAROLINA.  SO...THINK THAT ONE LOW WILL BE A REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER NRN GA...WHILE ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT N OF JAX THAT WILL MOVE NWD ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. 
MODELS DEPICT VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN THE HODOGRAPHS DUE TO
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW DEVELOPING BY 08/00Z.  HOWEVER...WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY MAKES FOR A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE TPA AREA
NWD...OR ACROSS PARTS OF THE KEYS AS WEAK SFC LOW OFFSHORE MOVES EWD
THEN WEAKENS DUE TO CURRENT CONVECTION NW OF THE TPA AREA.

..MCCARTHY/JEWELL.. 11/07/2006