[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060527
SWODY1
SPC AC 060525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CST SUN NOV 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS VORT MAX/DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DIGS
QUICKLY SSEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH MOVING OUT OF E TX
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH 07/12Z.

...WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH TIME ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY.  WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE RATES FORECAST TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS MOST
PARTS OF THE REGION.

MODELS HINT THAT WARM FRONT -- AT THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER GULF
MOISTURE -- MAY ATTEMPT TO WORK NWD/ONSHORE ACROSS SRN LA/SRN MS
DURING THE DAY.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
VEERING/SHEAR INVOF BOUNDARY AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY --
DRIVEN BY TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER -- WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND POSSIBLY A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. 
ATTM...CONFIDENCE THAT MOIST/SUFFICIENTLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL WORK
INLAND REMAINS LOW...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.  SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ONSHORE.

...PARTS OF OK AND TX...
AS COLD /AROUND -20 C AT H5/ MID-LEVEL AIR SPREADS SSEWD ACROSS OK
AND PARTS OF TX NEAR PEAK HEATING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER VORT
MAX/LOW...MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.  DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.  GIVEN COLD MID-LEVEL AIR/STEEP
LAPSE RATES...SMALL TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH 
ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THREAT SHOULD END QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GOSS.. 11/06/2006