[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060057
SWODY1
SPC AC 060055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN NOV 05 2006

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR S CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL
N TX...

...N TX INTO S CENTRAL AND SERN OK...
MCS IS ONGOING ATTM OVER N CENTRAL TX/S CENTRAL OK...ALONG WARM
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS W-E ACROSS N TX JUST S OF THE RED RIVER. 
OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL /EVENING
FORT WORTH RAOB REVEALS LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND SHEAR
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE STORM DEPTH 33 KT/. HOWEVER...A MESO-LOW
HAS EVOLVED WITHIN A SMALL/FAIRLY INTENSE STORM CLUSTER ALONG THE
WARM FRONT...AND A BOWING LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE S OF
THE MESO-LOW NOW MOVING EWD AT 35 KT.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG AND S OF THE RED RIVER...MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF N TX.

ELSEWHERE...A MORE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDS WWD INTO WRN N
TX...WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS BUT WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LIMITED --
PRESUMABLY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CAPPING.  A LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINAL
HAIL ALSO APPEARS TO EXTEND INTO SERN OK AND NERN TX.  

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES AND STORMS MOVE INTO EVEN LESS-UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER NERN TX/SERN OK.

..GOSS.. 11/06/2006