[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051950
SWODY1
SPC AC 051947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST SUN NOV 05 2006

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...

...OK/TX...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE TX
PNHDL AND S-CNTRL NM WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN
SHIFTING THESE FEATURES SEWD THROUGH WRN INTO CNTRL TX TONIGHT.  IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE N OF MAF
WITH INVERTED TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL
TX PNHDL INTO NERN OK. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY THEN
EXTENDED SWD INTO SWRN TX /E OF FST/.  FINALLY...WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM INTERSECTION WITH INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SERN TX
PNHDL OR SWRN OK ESEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL OK INTO NERN TX.  THIS
INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COLD FRONT AS
IT PUSHES SEWD INTO NWRN TX...WITH ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPING SEWD INTO NWRN AND EVENTUALLY CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT.

THUS FAR TODAY....TSTMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED NEAR INVERTED TROUGH-850
MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE E-CNTRL TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK WITHIN A PLUME
OF 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF AROUND
500 J/KG.  MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED NEAR WARM
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH TRIPLE POINT /NEAR CDS/ WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SWD EXTENT
HAVE LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WARM
SECTOR WITH MLCAPES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.  A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG
THE RED RIVER /NEAR SPS/ AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF AROUND
60F ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALLY STRONGER INSTABILITY.

SHORT TERM RUC/OPERATIONAL WRF AND HIGH RESOLUTION WRF DATASETS
SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER NWRN TX AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERSPREADS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. 
WHILE REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MARGINALLY STRONG /30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF BUOYANCY...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE
OF SEVERE HAIL.

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT OVER NRN INTO
CNTRL TX AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PHASE AND CONTRIBUTE
TO OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH ONLY A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME WIND/HAIL.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2006