[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051604
SWODY1
SPC AC 051602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2006

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...W-CENTRAL INTO NWRN TX...
PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LEADING SYSTEM IS FOCUSING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG ASSOCIATED
20 KT H85 JET SUSTAINING A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO ERN
OK/WRN AR.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS LEADING SYSTEM
DAMPENS OUT AND EJECTS EWD TODAY.  TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
DIGGING SEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN NM. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK
AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL/WRN TX IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. LOW CLOUDS AND
LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN/NWRN TX WHICH
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A MCS AND SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS MORE OF
NRN/CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING AND INTO ERN TX OVERNIGHT. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NWRN TX
WHERE BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OR BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  OVERALL SETUP APPEARS MARGINAL FOR MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH ONE OR TWO STRONGER
STORMS LATE TODAY MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND AROUND SEVERE LEVELS.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 11/05/2006