[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051233
SWODY1
SPC AC 051231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2006

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OK SWD INTO CNTRL/SW TX...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX PNHDL AT SUNRISE WILL TRANSLATE EWD
ACROSS OK AND N TX THIS AFTN TO SRN MO/AR BY 12Z.  A SECONDARY
IMPULSE...NOW OVER AZ...WILL DIG SEWD INTO SW TX BY LATE
EVE...REACHING SCNTRL TX BY EARLY MON MORNING. IN THE LWR
LEVELS...A FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS NW AND WCNTRL TX IN WAKE OF THE LEAD IMPULSE. 

AT DAYBREAK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/EXTENSIVE CLOUDS CONTINUED TO
SPREAD NWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 
THE INITIAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT ENHANCED CONVECTION PERSISTED IN AN
ARC FROM N TX TO THE OZARKS.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK TIED TO THE STRONGEST H5-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCD WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.  

AS THE LEAD IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS OK/N TX THROUGH THIS AFTN...
CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL INCREASE ALONG WRN EDGE OF THE ORIGINAL WARM
CONVEYOR FROM CNTRL/SERN OK SWD INTO N TX.  AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING WILL BE MINIMAL AND SFC BASED TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. 
NONETHELESS...MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL TEND TO SUPPORT STRONGER ELEVATED TSTMS THAT MAY PRODUCE ISOLD
LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER S...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SFC HEATING MAY BE MORE
PRONOUNCED THIS AFTN ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY...LOWER
PECOS RIVER AND ERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF TX. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED DURING PEAK HEATING BENEATH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM...RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. 
OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER HERE THAN
FARTHER N...UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE SECONDARY AZ IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE REGION. MOREOVER... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...GENERALLY AOB 35 KTS.  

TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF THE SFC TROUGH DURING PEAK
HEATING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY. 
TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER DARK FARTHER S IN SWRN/WCNTRL TX
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AZ IMPULSE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT
E-SEWD TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ATTM...ANTICIPATED ISOLD
SEVERE THREATS PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. 

FINALLY...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE SERN TX
COAST BETWEEN 09-12Z.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

..RACY/CROSBIE.. 11/05/2006