[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050414
SWODY1
SPC AC 050412

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 PM CST SAT NOV 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ZONAL....EXCEPT FOR
TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE
TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO SRN NM.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY
SOMEWHAT...EXTENDING FROM MO SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO N-CENTRAL MEX
BY 06/12Z.  AT SFC...WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT
OVER SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK -- IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD
ACROSS NW AND W-CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF SLOWLY DIGGING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM. 
WEAK SFC LOW NOW EVIDENT SW TCC MAY PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

...W-CENTRAL/SW TX...
EXTENSIVE SW-NE PLUME OF CLOUDS/PRECIP -- WITH EMBEDDED AND LARGELY
ELEVATED TSTMS -- IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX
NEWD ACROSS SERN OK INTO AR THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD.  THIS WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT OVER MUCH OF SERN PLAINS...RED
RIVER REGION AND ARKLATEX.

HOWEVER...SFC HEATING MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED DURING AFTERNOON ACROSS
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY...LOWER PECOS RIVER AND ERN PERMIAN
BASIN REGIONS OF TX.  TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHIFTING EWD-SEWD TOWARD HILL COUNTRY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  SFC MOISTURE S
OF BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER GRADUALLY ACROSS THIS REGION...AS
SELY FLOW CONTINUES FROM MODIFYING NWRN-GULF AIR MASS. SFC DEW
POINTS OVER MUCH OF REGION SHOULD REACH 60S BY AFTERNOON...BENEATH
MODEST 6.5-7.5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED
WRF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG OVER REGION.

OTHER THAN HEATING ITSELF...LIFT MAY BE LIMITED.  WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE FCST...WHICH WILL LIMIT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT/TROUGH.  FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER WITH
HEIGHT...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MRGL OVER MOST OF REGION. 
SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT AND SHEAR MAY OCCUR IF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
CAN DIURNALLY REINFORCE PREVIOUSLY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC BOUNDARY...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE
PROCESSES ARE TOO CONDITIONAL TO JUSTIFY GREATER PROBABILITY NUMBERS
ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2006