[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041243
SWODY1
SPC AC 041240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST SAT NOV 04 2006

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...KS/OK/TX/MO/AR...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS BROAD/FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF
THE NATION THIS MORNING.  ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NV/UT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SUSTAINED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM CENTRAL TX...ACROSS
MO...INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  TRAJECTORIES WILL DRAW
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MOSTLY ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER/ INTO PARTS OF OK/KS/MO/AR.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOW A PLUME OF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
AFTER 00Z IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.  INCREASING FORCING FOR
LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO
SOUTHWEST MO.  LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SEVERE THREAT.

...CO...
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CO AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES AREA.  500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COUPLED WITH
POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.  NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE FORECAST.

...SOUTH FL...
PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FL STRAITS THIS
MORNING.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.  FAR SOUTH FL
AND THE KEYS MAY SEE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/04/2006