[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301625
SWODY1
SPC AC 301623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS......

....LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
CYCLOGENESIS IS JUST BEGINNING SWRN AR IN ADVANCE OF THE VIGOROUS
TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING SRN PLAINS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
VERY STRONG UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE INTENSIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY SERN IL TO SURFACE LOW
SWRN AR THEN TO S TX. FRONT TO NE OF DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE
TODAY WHILE IT PUSHES RAPIDLY SEWD OFF TX COAST.

WHILE THE WARM SECTOR IS VERY MOIST WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS SURGING
NWD BY THIS AFTERNOON THRU MS INTO WRN TN...THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
WARM MID/UPPER LEVELS IS GREATLY LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MLCAPES OF JUST 200-400 J/KG ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR THRU TONIGHT.

HOWEVER THE EXTREMELY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM OVER
SERN AR/NERN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND RACE NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY
AND PARTS OF KY/TN/MS PRIOR TO 06Z.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE INTENSE FORCING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS/OVER 100KT AT 500MB AND CLOSE TO 70 KT AT
850MB OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM WITHIN OR JUST AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE.

..HALES/GUYER.. 11/30/2006