[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301243
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS...

...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM...AND
IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT.  AS IT DOES SO...SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MID LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TO OVER 120 KNOTS. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN VERY
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER/MID
MS VALLEY THIS EVENING.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN AR BY MID AFTERNOON AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KY/TN.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF LOW WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED INTO WESTERN TN.  WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE THAN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...EXTREMELY STRONG
WIND FIELDS AND FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM
 OVER SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHEAST LA AND RACE INTO PARTS OF KY/TN/MS
BEFORE 06Z.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. 
HOWEVER...INTENSE FORCING AND STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS /OVER 100
KNOTS AT 500MB AND OVER 60 KNOTS AT 850MB/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IN ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM WITHIN OR AHEAD
OF THE LINE.

..HART/GRAMS.. 11/30/2006