[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300058
SWODY1
SPC AC 300056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX AND SERN OK
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...

...S CNTRL THROUGH NERN TX...SERN OK NWRN AR AND SRN MO...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THROUGH
CNTRL AND SWRN MO...SERN OK INTO N CNTRL THROUGH WRN TX. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SEWD THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 60S DEWPOINTS FROM TX THROUGH
SERN OK WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FARTHER NE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
 MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN TX INTO
SERN OK...BUT DECREASES TO BELOW 500 J/KG FARTHER NE INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
 IS MORE LIMITED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF FORCED LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN TX INTO ERN OK AND THE MID MS VALLEY.
ORIENTATION OF THE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS BEING UNDERCUT AND BECOMING ELEVATED SOON AFTER
INITIATION. THIS SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE HAIL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 6.5-7 C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
PRESENT ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT. OVERALL HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED BY MODEST INSTABILITY.

STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NM
SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY
SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE MOVING NEWD INTO SWRN TX. SOME INCREASE IN THE
SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS CNTRL TX PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 11/30/2006