[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291248
SWODY1
SPC AC 291245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN NM WILL TRACK EASTWARD
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.  MEANWHILE...ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN MO/OK/NORTHWEST TX. 
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG FRONT FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN MO.  THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER
EXPECTED.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY
FAST-MOVING FRONT.  HOWEVER...MORNING OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS ZONE SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.

AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S ALONG/EAST OF DRYLINE.  STRONG HEATING WEST OF THE DRYLINE...
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION AND LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW VERY
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR.  VERY
STRONG WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.  STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO PARTS OF MO/IL...WHERE STRONG WIND FIELDS MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT DESPITE VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..HART/GRAMS.. 11/29/2006