[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281628
SWODY1
SPC AC 281626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH WRN U.S. CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT
SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD. ONE STRONG IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA WHILE 140KT NLY POLAR JET PAC NW SUPPORTS CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION OVER CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.

SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT OVER DAKOTAS TRACKS NEWD AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS SEWD THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. PAC FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW ERN CO SWWD INTO NRN AZ. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH PAC FRONT TRAILING WSWWD ACROSS AZ.

AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS AND UPPER TROUGH THE STRONG SLY FLOW OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD.

THE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WAS TIED TO
WEAKENING S/WV TROUGH NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY.

WHILE THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST...MID LEVEL
VEERING/DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF S/WV TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE
THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
 OVERNIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CENTAL/SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP. MODELS STILL INDICATING THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 12Z WED...SO FOR NOW
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE THREAT BUT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
AREA DURING AFTERNOON DAY1 UPDATE.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 11/28/2006