[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271947
SWODY1
SPC AC 271945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST MON NOV 27 2006

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PIVOTING AROUND DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO AID LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ACT IN CONCERT
WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A SHARP FRONTAL ZONE FROM
TX/OK TO IA/WI TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS
OF MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 300-800 J/KG. STRONGER ASCENT...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN IMPULSE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER...SHOULD RESULT
IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BENEATH THIS
INCREASING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE STABLE...LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM WRN OK...ACROSS PARTS OF KS...AND
INTO NWRN MO AND SWRN IA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.

..CARBIN.. 11/27/2006