[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261614
SWODY1
SPC AC 261611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST SUN NOV 26 2006

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN U.S. WILL DEEPEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO PAC NW.  BROAD SWLY
FLOW PREVAILS FROM THE SWRN U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW CURRENTLY VICINITY CO WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY MON AM.

RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO MON SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY UNDER SWLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS.

INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY TO
SUPPORT ANY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
INTERACTS WITH PLUME OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE FROM ERN NE/KS TO WI.


THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA WILL BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH MUCAPES POSSIBLY
TO 500 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND LOW WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS...THERE COULD BE SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.

IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND WRN WA TODAY A COLD AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL AREA PAC NW...MOST LIKELY AFTER
00Z.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/26/2006