[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240443
SWODY1
SPC AC 240440

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CST THU NOV 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SPLIT INTO A
COUPLE OF DISTINCT STRONGER BELTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
BUT...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  A STRONG JET STREAK IN THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...IS
PROGGED TO NOSE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S./NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO
AN AREA OF BROAD/WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW
NOW ACCELERATING AWAY FROM ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ONLY SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
MODIFY/MOISTEN.  WHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
RETREATS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE U.S...THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

..KERR.. 11/24/2006