[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221624
SWODY1
SPC AC 221621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST WED NOV 22 2006

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN NC TO DELMARVA...
16Z STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE NC CAPES
WITH THE PRIMARY MARINE FRONT STILL LOCATED 30-40 MILES OFFSHORE.
THE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE CAPES LATER
TODAY AS THE NEXT LOBE OF VORTICITY...NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER ECNTRL FL...ROTATES NNEWD.  OLD DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE FOOTHILLS OF VA...NC...SC SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTN...WITH A NEW
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE LIKELY EVOLVING THIS EVE/
OVERNIGHT FROM EXTREME ERN NC NWD TO NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST. 
MESOSCALE BANDS WITHIN THIS ZONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AFTER 00Z AS
STRONGER H5-H3 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS NWD COINCIDENT WITH
MUCAPES UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE WHERE THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED.  

...PAC NW TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...  
HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED 200-300 NM OFF THE WA/ORE COAST
THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH CONSIDERABLE OPEN-CELL
CUMULUS FIELD. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
ASSOCD WITH THIS IMPULSE /AOB MINUS 30 DEG C/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WA/ORE THIS EVE AND INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE TONIGHT. 
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING WLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO
REACH ICING LEVELS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. 
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NWRN ORE/SWRN WA LATE THIS
EVENING.  OTHER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MORE ISOLD IN
COVERAGE...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WA/ORE EWD INTO WRN MT
BY 12Z THU.

..RACY/GRAMS.. 11/22/2006