[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210036
SWODY1
SPC AC 210033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CST MON NOV 20 2006

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN ATLANTIC COAST...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS...LARGELY DRIVEN BY RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 MB
LAYER /PER RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS/.  HEAT AND MOISTURE FLUXES ALONG
THE GULF STREAM SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
INVOF OF THIS INTENSIFYING BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION /SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SE CHS/. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AS PORTION OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE N OF SURFACE LOW PIVOTS SLIGHTLY WWD.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY TO JUST OFF
THE GA COAST AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE FAR NERN GULF
OF MEXICO TRANSLATES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

...WA/ORE COASTS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR
42N AND 129W...WHICH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ONTO THE COAST BY
21/12Z.  21/00Z UIL/SLE SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES --7 C/KM--  IN THE LOWEST 3.5 KM AGL WITH VERY MARGINAL
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  FURTHER STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FOR ISOLATED...EMBEDDED TSTMS
ALONG THE COAST /SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED JUST AHEAD OF
VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 43.5N AND 127W AS OF 0030Z/.

..MEAD.. 11/21/2006