[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 202001
SWODY1
SPC AC 201958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST MON NOV 20 2006

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN MID-UPPER LEVELS FEATURES HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER ERN CONUS...AND RIDGING FROM NRN MEX NEWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST
AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  SRN STREAM FLOW OVER SERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN CUTTING OFF BY END OF PERIOD AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER N-CENTRAL GULF AND SERN LA
-- PIVOTS EWD AND PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER SRN APPALACHIANS. 
BY 21/12Z...RESULT SHOULD BE CLOSED CYCLONE COVERING GA...NERN GULF
AND FL PANHANDLE.  AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW ALREADY EVIDENT OFFSHORE
SC IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...BROAD FETCH OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF W COAST AND NRN CONUS...W OF MEAN RIDGE.

...SERN CONUS...
WRN EDGE OF LARGELY MARITIME TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BRUSH COASTAL AREAS
OF SC/NC THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA AND FRONTAL ASCENT.  FAVORABLY
HIGH-THETAE SURFACE AIR MASS IN SERN SECTOR OF SFC CYCLONE -- AND
OVER ENHANCED HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES OF GULF STREAM -- WILL BE LIFTED
ABOVE OFFSHORE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND ADVECTED WWD IN ELEVATED WARM
CONVEYOR.  THIS WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 250 J/KG DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...PACIFIC NW...
EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY MOVE INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO PERIODS OF LOW-MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK CINH AND MRGL LOW LEVEL THETAE...RESULTING IN
MUCAPES 100-300 J/KG ALONG COAST.  IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LATE TONIGHT MAY CONCENTRATE TSTM POTENTIAL
ALONG ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/20/2006