[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST MON NOV 20 2006

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
FL BY 12Z TUE. ATTENDANT SFC LOW ALREADY EVIDENT IN BUOY STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS OFF THE SC/GA COASTS WILL INTENSIFY.  INTENSIFYING CONVEYOR
BELT ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL WRAP
MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FROM THE GULF STREAM WWD TO THE
SERN ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z TUE.  MOST SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
AND TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...HOWEVER.

...COASTAL WA/ORE...
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NEWD ACROSS
CNTRL WA THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING AND RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THIS EVE.  NEXT
DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 40N/140W WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST BY 12Z TUE WITH STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS JUST
OFFSHORE.  COLD/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE JUST OFFSHORE
COMBINED WITH STRONG MESOSCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN UPSWING IN
TSTM PROBABILITIES ALONG COASTAL WA/ORE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 11/20/2006