[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201233
SWODY1
SPC AC 201231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST MON NOV 20 2006

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMPLIFIED...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN PARTS OF
CANADA AND THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WHILE IN THE W...A BELT OF
STRONG...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND S-CNTRL CANADA.  LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSIFYING SRN BRANCH OF ERN U.S. TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE
MAJORITY TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS FORECAST OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.


OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG THE WA/ORE
COASTS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AS NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE W.
HERE...INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND.

..EVANS/MEAD.. 11/20/2006