[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 062001
SWODY1
SPC AC 061958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST MON NOV 06 2006

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...

LONG-LIVED EXPANSIVE MCS CONTINUES ITS EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NRN MOST PORTIONS OF THIS
ACTIVITY ARE WELL CORRELATED WITH AN UPPER VORT OVER SERN MO...WHILE
TRAILING PORTIONS ACROSS MS INTO SERN LA SEEM TO BE DRIVEN IN LARGE
PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT BENEATH PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER LA/WRN MS. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE DRIVING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE MS DELTA
REGION...SOME OF WHICH ARE NOW DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHTNING. WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH ACROSS THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DEEPER
ROTATION.  GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO WEAK TORNADOES.

UPSTREAM ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX...FLOW HAS VEERED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS WITH DEEP WNWLY FLOW
NOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO CNTRL TX.  LATEST
DIAGNOSTIC  DATA SUGGEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED...HOWEVER SWWD PROGRESSION OF
MULTI-FACETED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING LONG-LIVED SEVERE UPDRAFTS.  AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG ADVANCING WIND
SHIFT...INVOF BASTROP COUNTY...SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD INTO
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS SHOULD LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS UPDRAFTS STRUGGLE TO
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

..DARROW.. 11/06/2006