[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061621
SWODY1
SPC AC 061619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST MON NOV 06 2006

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO A JET MAX AND
THERMAL TROUGH DIGGING SEWD DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS NOTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER CENTRAL AR AND A TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
LOW INTO NERN AND SRN TX. THE WEAK LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WRN TN
TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH/FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

...SERN TX EWD INTO SWRN AL INTO SRN LA...
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE PRECIPITATION AREA EXTENDED FROM WRN TN/WRN MS
SWWD INTO SRN LA/SERN TX AT MID MORNING. PRESENCE OF COLD POOL AND
EWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING EWD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TN/MS...AND SEWD ACROSS SRN LA AND SERN TX.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. WITH THE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE/LIFT EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY...THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS
LOW. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER IN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY VCT-CRP-AUS THIS AFTERNOON ...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL STRENGTHEN CAPPING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND REDUCE CONVECTIVE THREAT.

...CENTRAL/WRN OK SWD INTO NRN TX...
THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT...WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C...WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ONCE CLOUDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WARM AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EXTREME
NWRN OK AND SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK/NWRN TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...NEAR 8C/KM...AND MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG...ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

..IMY/GRAMS.. 11/06/2006