[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050103
SWODY1
SPC AC 050100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST SAT NOV 04 2006

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL MEAN FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT OVER
MOST OF CONUS...DISTORTED PRIMARILY BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWWD ACROSS SWRN NM.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD
DRIFT EWD OVERNIGHT.  UPSTREAM...MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM 130-133W OFFSHORE WA/BC --
IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND BY APPROXIMATELY 06Z.

AT SFC...WEAK QUASISTATIONARY FRONT AND CONFLUENT LINE WAS ANALYZED
FROM NW OK SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...THROUGH LOW INVOF
TCC...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE FARTHER WSW.  DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED FROM
NRN COAHUILA NWD BETWEEN MAF-INK THEN NNEWD ACROSS CDS
AREA...BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER WRN OK WHERE ONLY WEAK MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED TO ITS E.  LOW CLOUD TRENDS AND GPS-PW DATA INDICATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DRYLINE HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY SE OF REGION DURING
PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER MORE INTENSE PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED IN LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD SHIFT W/NW EDGE OF
MOIST PLUME AT LEAST INTO POSITION OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT OVER
PANHANDLE...AND WWD TO VICINITY NM BORDER AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FARTHER S.

...OZARKS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY
MOISTENING/STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM NRN COAHUILA NWD THEN NEWD ACROSS
W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX AND ERN OK.  TWO ASSOCIATED AREAS OF GEN TSTM
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR REMAINDER PERIOD...WITH JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IN POSSIBLE SPATIAL OVERLAP THAT THEY STILL FORM ONE COMPOSITE AREA
ON 01Z-12Z GRAPHIC DEPICTION.

1. CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SERN
KS...NWRN AR...NERN OK AND SWRN MO ATTM.  THIS ACTIVITY CORRESPONDS
TO LEADING PORTION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE
SFC...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC.  ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-200 J/KG
ALREADY EVIDENT IN SGF RAOB WERE UNDERFCST BY LATEST RUNS OF BOTH
ETA AND RUC...INDICATING THESE MODELS MAY SIMILARLY UNDERFCST
SIZE/COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE AREA THIS EVENING UNTIL LATEST RAOB DATA
IS INPUT.  PRIND ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION WILL WEAKEN AFTER ABOUT
08Z AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SHIFT SW.

2.  AFTER ABOUT 06Z...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS NW TX....ERN TX PANHANDLE AND/OR WRN OK. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN 750-900 MB LAYER --
BENEATH 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR ELEVATED MUCAPES TO
REACH 800 J/KG BY END OF PERIOD OVER SWRN OK AND NW TX...WITH
MINIMAL CINH.  ADDITIONAL/CONDITIONAL THUNDER AREA MAY DEVELOP
BENEATH OR JUST W OF LLJ AXIS FROM CENTRAL TX NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
OK...AMIDST STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

...WRN/NRN OLYMPIC PENINSULA...
STRONGEST MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
JUST N OF AREA ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND.  GIVEN WEAKLY BUOYANT
PROFILE EVIDENT IN UIL RAOB...BRIEF/ISOLATED LIGHTNING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO TRANSIENT AND CONDITIONAL
TO WARRANT GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2006