[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040546
SWODY1
SPC AC 040544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 03 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY THE
TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALONG WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM....THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN HALF
OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN STABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE
FLA KEYS WHERE A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A PLUME OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INVOF THE AREA...SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY BEFORE 00Z.

...PORTIONS OF OK/WRN AR AND SRN MO...
ELEVATED MOISTURE /850 DEWPT AROUND 8 DEG C NOTED ON THE 04/00Z DRT
SOUNDING AND 700 DEWPT AROUND 0 DEG C ON THE 04/00Z MAF SOUNDING/
WILL ADVECT/ISENTROPICALLY LIFT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A MODERATELY STRONG 40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AIDING IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 100 KT UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF ALL
THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO SRN MO
AND WRN AR GENERALLY AFTER 03Z.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES LESS
THAN 250 J/KG/ SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED SVR HAIL THREAT.

..CROSBIE/WEISS.. 11/04/2006