[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 302002
SWODY1
SPC AC 302001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN
IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NY AND VICINITY...

...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
PARTS OF KS/OK...AND STORM INITIATION IS NOW OCCURRING WWD ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN CO/NERN NM WHERE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER/MORE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS.

WITH ELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT
MID-LEVEL WSWLYS...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS
EXISTS.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS NOW
EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK...SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -- SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS W TX/WRN OK/WRN KS INTO ERN
PORTIONS OF CO/NM...EXPECT ONE OR MORE MCS TO EVOLVE AND ROLL SEWD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...MEAN-LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NY ATTM...WITH
OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NY/PA SWD
INTO NRN VA. 

DUE TO PERSISTENCE OF STORMS...COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
WITH THE STORM CLUSTER OVER E CENTRAL/NERN NY NEAR AND W OF GFL
/GLEN FALLS NY/...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION.
 THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS. 


...UPPER MIDWEST...
WEAK VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD ACROSS SRN WI...WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INVOF THIS FEATURE.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD REMAINS WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
LIMITED HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS INVOF VORT MAX. 
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 05/30/2006