[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301629
SWODY1
SPC AC 301627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BROAD/FLAT TROUGH
OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND.  WIDESPREAD
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTH FL. MANY OF
THESE  AREAS WILL HAVE A RISK OF VERY ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE SEVERE
STORMS.  THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...CO/NM/KS/OK/TX...
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MAINTAINED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NM/WEST TX...WITH 20-30 KNOT 500MB
FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS REGION...TRANSPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
WESTWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM/CO. 
STRONG HEATING IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT
CAPE AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ENHANCED UPSLOPE
NEAR THE PALMER/RATON RIDGES MAY AID DEVELOPMENT.  OTHER HIGH-BASED
STORMS ARE LIKELY IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHWARD INTO WEST
TX.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AND MORE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AFTER
DARK...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN KS WHERE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  MCS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KS
AND NORTHWEST OK.

...CO/WY...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT TODAY INTO NORTHEAST CO
AND EASTERN WY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND FULL SUNSHINE. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH MUCAPE AROUND
500 J/KG.  SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK HILLS...AND
SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD.  A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK
OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF IA/WI/MI THIS MORNING.  THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TRACKS FROM IA ACROSS WI.  THREAT OF IS0LATED SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL AND SOUTHERN WI. 
PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1029 FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

...IL/IN/KY/TN/AL...
PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST TWO DAYS...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. 
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK...SUGGESTING MULTICELL OR PULSE-TYPE SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE.  WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL ARE THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

...NY/PA/NJ...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKET OF VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIR REMAINING ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA.  EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT
OVER THIS REGION SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...WITH 500MB WIND SPEEDS
FORECAST TO BE ONLY 5-10 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES /19C AT 850MB/ SUGGESTS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. 
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK
SHEAR...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...FL...
DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD FOCUS
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SEA-BREEZE
TODAY. VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY.

..HART/GRAMS.. 05/30/2006